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Shopify Stock’s Recent Uptick Is Not a Sign to Buy

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InvestorPlace


Since the end of July, Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) stock has been trending higher. With this uptick, you may think that SHOP stock has already bottomed out and is ready to make a real recovery. Yet far from the start of a rebound, what’s played out with shares in the e-commerce software company can be best described as a “dead cat bounce.”

In other words, it has experienced a temporary move higher after an extended price decline. Furthermore, this dead cat bounce was more the product of an external factor rather than company-related news. To top things off, the positive impact of this external factor has started to wane.

Market conditions are again growing unfavorable. Coupled with company issues that are far from cleared up, investors can forget about a further recovery. A move to new lows remains likely. Skipping on SHOP stock continues to be your best move.

SHOP Stock and Its ‘Dead Cat Bounce’

As I discussed in my last article on Shopify, there was company-related news that gave it a brief boost in July. However, this latest uptick is due to something more market-related: increased hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year.

Given the growing chance of a recession, investors temporarily became confident that this would happen. Cutting rates next year, after hiking them this year to tackle inflation, would soften the blow of an economic downturn. It would also be a positive for stocks, especially growth stocks like SHOP. The sharp rise in interest rates has played a role in this stock’s big drop year-to-date (YTD).

Unfortunately, the latest macro data has dampened confidence that rate cuts are just around the corner. Last week’s strong jobs report suggests the Fed can raise rates further without causing unemployment to skyrocket.

If this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers show inflation is getting worse, the market will view that as a sign the Fed will move forward with its hawkish fiscal policy. While market conditions are again becoming unfavorable, headwinds that have also hurt its performance continue to persist.

There’s Still Considerable Downside Risk

A high CPI number will signal the Fed’s not slowing down with raising interest rates. Just as lower rates are good for growth stocks, higher rates are bad for them. Higher interest rates decrease the present value of future earnings. That’s bad news for richly priced SHOP stock. It continues to trade at a premium valuation.

At current prices, Shopify trades for 417.2x estimated 2023 earnings. The stock is already vulnerable for a de-rating, independent of external factors like interest rates. One could argue its current valuation would be reasonable, if it was continuing to grow at a 57% annual clip (like it was last year).

But based on its latest financials, today’s valuation makes little sense. Revenue growth last quarter slowed to just 16%. Slowing growth, coupled with rising costs, led to an adjusted quarterly loss of 3 cents per share. Analysts expected earnings of 3 cents per share.

Worse yet, improvement in results is more likely to happen later than sooner. The company itself has admitted this, citing factors like high inflation and rising interest rates that will continue to put pressure on consumers. Already pricey based on expectations that Shopify may fail to meet, more disappointment and downside risk is in store.

The Verdict

Given my bearish view on Shopify, it should be no surprise that it continues to earn an F rating in my Portfolio Grader. As recently as a year ago, the company had a lot going for it. E-commerce growth was still strong, even as pandemic tailwinds were fading. It was still in high-growth mode. With the market at the time of the “growth at any price” mindset, it appeared near-unsinkable.

Now, the script has been flipped. The economic slowdown is severely hurting demand for its services. Growth is grinding to a halt, and the company is reporting net losses. Higher interest rates have resulted in growth stocks going out of favor.

Although down nearly 78% from its high-water mark, there’s plenty pointing to SHOP stock experiencing another material plunge in price. With this, don’t view its recent dead cat bounce as an invitation to buy.

Published First on Investorplace. Read Here.

Featured Image Credit: Mali Maeder; Pexels; Thank you!

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Fintech Kennek raises $12.5M seed round to digitize lending

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Google eyed for $2 billion Anthropic deal after major Amazon play


London-based fintech startup Kennek has raised $12.5 million in seed funding to expand its lending operating system.

According to an Oct. 10 tech.eu report, the round was led by HV Capital and included participation from Dutch Founders Fund, AlbionVC, FFVC, Plug & Play Ventures, and Syndicate One. Kennek offers software-as-a-service tools to help non-bank lenders streamline their operations using open banking, open finance, and payments.

The platform aims to automate time-consuming manual tasks and consolidate fragmented data to simplify lending. Xavier De Pauw, founder of Kennek said:

“Until kennek, lenders had to devote countless hours to menial operational tasks and deal with jumbled and hard-coded data – which makes every other part of lending a headache. As former lenders ourselves, we lived and breathed these frustrations, and built kennek to make them a thing of the past.”

The company said the latest funding round was oversubscribed and closed quickly despite the challenging fundraising environment. The new capital will be used to expand Kennek’s engineering team and strengthen its market position in the UK while exploring expansion into other European markets. Barbod Namini, Partner at lead investor HV Capital, commented on the investment:

“Kennek has developed an ambitious and genuinely unique proposition which we think can be the foundation of the entire alternative lending space. […] It is a complicated market and a solution that brings together all information and stakeholders onto a single platform is highly compelling for both lenders & the ecosystem as a whole.”

The fintech lending space has grown rapidly in recent years, but many lenders still rely on legacy systems and manual processes that limit efficiency and scalability. Kennek aims to leverage open banking and data integration to provide lenders with a more streamlined, automated lending experience.

The seed funding will allow the London-based startup to continue developing its platform and expanding its team to meet demand from non-bank lenders looking to digitize operations. Kennek’s focus on the UK and Europe also comes amid rising adoption of open banking and open finance in the regions.

Featured Image Credit: Photo from Kennek.io; Thank you!

Radek Zielinski

Radek Zielinski is an experienced technology and financial journalist with a passion for cybersecurity and futurology.

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Fortune 500’s race for generative AI breakthroughs

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Deanna Ritchie


As excitement around generative AI grows, Fortune 500 companies, including Goldman Sachs, are carefully examining the possible applications of this technology. A recent survey of U.S. executives indicated that 60% believe generative AI will substantially impact their businesses in the long term. However, they anticipate a one to two-year timeframe before implementing their initial solutions. This optimism stems from the potential of generative AI to revolutionize various aspects of businesses, from enhancing customer experiences to optimizing internal processes. In the short term, companies will likely focus on pilot projects and experimentation, gradually integrating generative AI into their operations as they witness its positive influence on efficiency and profitability.

Goldman Sachs’ Cautious Approach to Implementing Generative AI

In a recent interview, Goldman Sachs CIO Marco Argenti revealed that the firm has not yet implemented any generative AI use cases. Instead, the company focuses on experimentation and setting high standards before adopting the technology. Argenti recognized the desire for outcomes in areas like developer and operational efficiency but emphasized ensuring precision before putting experimental AI use cases into production.

According to Argenti, striking the right balance between driving innovation and maintaining accuracy is crucial for successfully integrating generative AI within the firm. Goldman Sachs intends to continue exploring this emerging technology’s potential benefits and applications while diligently assessing risks to ensure it meets the company’s stringent quality standards.

One possible application for Goldman Sachs is in software development, where the company has observed a 20-40% productivity increase during its trials. The goal is for 1,000 developers to utilize generative AI tools by year’s end. However, Argenti emphasized that a well-defined expectation of return on investment is necessary before fully integrating generative AI into production.

To achieve this, the company plans to implement a systematic and strategic approach to adopting generative AI, ensuring that it complements and enhances the skills of its developers. Additionally, Goldman Sachs intends to evaluate the long-term impact of generative AI on their software development processes and the overall quality of the applications being developed.

Goldman Sachs’ approach to AI implementation goes beyond merely executing models. The firm has created a platform encompassing technical, legal, and compliance assessments to filter out improper content and keep track of all interactions. This comprehensive system ensures seamless integration of artificial intelligence in operations while adhering to regulatory standards and maintaining client confidentiality. Moreover, the platform continuously improves and adapts its algorithms, allowing Goldman Sachs to stay at the forefront of technology and offer its clients the most efficient and secure services.

Featured Image Credit: Photo by Google DeepMind; Pexels; Thank you!

Deanna Ritchie

Managing Editor at ReadWrite

Deanna is the Managing Editor at ReadWrite. Previously she worked as the Editor in Chief for Startup Grind and has over 20+ years of experience in content management and content development.

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UK seizes web3 opportunity simplifying crypto regulations

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Deanna Ritchie


As Web3 companies increasingly consider leaving the United States due to regulatory ambiguity, the United Kingdom must simplify its cryptocurrency regulations to attract these businesses. The conservative think tank Policy Exchange recently released a report detailing ten suggestions for improving Web3 regulation in the country. Among the recommendations are reducing liability for token holders in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and encouraging the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to adopt alternative Know Your Customer (KYC) methodologies, such as digital identities and blockchain analytics tools. These suggestions aim to position the UK as a hub for Web3 innovation and attract blockchain-based businesses looking for a more conducive regulatory environment.

Streamlining Cryptocurrency Regulations for Innovation

To make it easier for emerging Web3 companies to navigate existing legal frameworks and contribute to the UK’s digital economy growth, the government must streamline cryptocurrency regulations and adopt forward-looking approaches. By making the regulatory landscape clear and straightforward, the UK can create an environment that fosters innovation, growth, and competitiveness in the global fintech industry.

The Policy Exchange report also recommends not weakening self-hosted wallets or treating proof-of-stake (PoS) services as financial services. This approach aims to protect the fundamental principles of decentralization and user autonomy while strongly emphasizing security and regulatory compliance. By doing so, the UK can nurture an environment that encourages innovation and the continued growth of blockchain technology.

Despite recent strict measures by UK authorities, such as His Majesty’s Treasury and the FCA, toward the digital assets sector, the proposed changes in the Policy Exchange report strive to make the UK a more attractive location for Web3 enterprises. By adopting these suggestions, the UK can demonstrate its commitment to fostering innovation in the rapidly evolving blockchain and cryptocurrency industries while ensuring a robust and transparent regulatory environment.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency regulations in various countries has prompted Web3 companies to explore alternative jurisdictions with more precise legal frameworks. As the United States grapples with regulatory ambiguity, the United Kingdom can position itself as a hub for Web3 innovation by simplifying and streamlining its cryptocurrency regulations.

Featured Image Credit: Photo by Jonathan Borba; Pexels; Thank you!

Deanna Ritchie

Managing Editor at ReadWrite

Deanna is the Managing Editor at ReadWrite. Previously she worked as the Editor in Chief for Startup Grind and has over 20+ years of experience in content management and content development.

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