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The American West is bracing for a hot, dry and dangerous summer

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The American West is bracing for a hot, dry and dangerous summer


In New Mexico, where half the state faces “exceptional drought” conditions, water districts are delaying allotments to farmers and urging them to simply not plant crops if possible.

All told, nearly 85% of the West is suffering through drought conditions right now, according to US Drought Monitor. Almost half the region is now in an extreme or exceptional drought, following years of dry, hot conditions aggravated by climate change.

The proximate cause of this year’s drought is a weak summer monsoon coupled with La Niña conditions that steered storms north. But the problem goes well beyond less rain and snow falling in recent months. The Southwest has suffered through the driest period since the 1500s for two decades now, according to a study in Science last year.

Climate change accounts for 46% of the severity, pushing what would have been a moderate drought into what the scientists deem “megadrought” territory. Numerous other studies find that higher temperatures will mean “more frequent and severe droughts in the Southwest,” noted the 2018 National Climate Assessment.

“Snow melts faster. There’s more evaporation. It just changes the game in so many different ways,” says Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy at Stanford’s Water in the West initiative.

Alarm bells

Regions are already scrambling to address the rising dangers.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed spending more than $5 billion to meet emergency water needs and shore up regional water infrastructure, among other efforts. He also declared drought emergencies across 41 counties, covering nearly all of Northern California and the Central Valley, the state’s rich agricultural region.

In Marin, a county north of San Francisco that’s largely isolated from regional water systems, reservoirs are running ominously low following nearly record low rainfall this year. The water district is discussing the possibility of building at least a temporary pipeline across the Richmond–San Rafael Bridge to ensure the water supply, for the first time since the state’s crippling 1976–1977 drought.

Researchers, officials, and emergency responders are also bracing for another terrible fire season, which is off to an early start. The Palisades fire near Los Angeles has burned across more than 1,000 acres of dry brush in recent days, forcing more than 1,000 people to flee their homes.

“Some elements of fire season risk are predictable; some aren’t,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who focuses on the atmospheric conditions that drive droughts, floods, and wildfires. “All the predictable ones are ringing alarm bells.”

The new normal

Some climate modeling finds that warming increases the variability of rainfall patterns, creating what researchers studying California’s conditions have described as a “whiplash” between more extreme periods of drought and flooding.

But years-long periods of extremes don’t naturally balance each other out, even if average precipitation levels stay the same. If regions don’t fundamentally rethink how they’re managing water, it will too often mean simply going from one type of disaster to another (see the 2012–2016 drought in California, immediately followed by flood years that triggered mudslides, washed out roads and pushed one dam near the breaking point).

“We have to shift our mindset to ‘drought is a normal thing,’” Ajami says. “And then when we have wet years, we should get excited and do a billion things to capture as much water as we can, to ensure we store enough for when we run dry again.”

That will require making better use of groundwater by cleaning up contaminated aquifers and refilling them during heavy rainfall years. Regions will also need to make far more efficient use of water once it’s in the system, reducing, reusing and recycling wherever they can.

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The emergent industrial metaverse

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The emergent industrial metaverse


Annika Hauptvogel, head of technology and innovation management at Siemens, describes the industrial metaverse as “immersive, making users feel as if they’re in a real environment; collaborative in real time; open enough for different applications to seamlessly interact; and trusted by the individuals and businesses that participate”—far more than simply a digital world. 

The industrial metaverse will revolutionize the way work is done, but it will also unlock significant new value for business and societies. By allowing businesses to model, prototype, and test dozens, hundreds, or millions of design iterations in real time and in an immersive, physics-based environment before committing physical and human resources to a project, industrial metaverse tools will usher in a new era of solving real-world problems digitally. 

“The real world is very messy, noisy, and sometimes hard to really understand,” says Danny Lange, senior vice president of artificial intelligence at Unity Technologies, a leading platform for creating and growing real-time 3-D content. “The idea of the industrial metaverse is to create a cleaner connection between the real world and the virtual world, because the virtual world is so much easier and cheaper to work with.” 

While real-life applications of the consumer metaverse are still developing, industrial metaverse use cases are purpose-driven, well aligned with real-world problems and business imperatives. The resource efficiencies enabled by industrial metaverse solutions may increase business competitiveness while also continually driving progress toward the sustainability, resilience, decarbonization, and dematerialization goals that are essential to human flourishing. 

This report explores what it will take to create the industrial metaverse, its potential impacts on business and society, the challenges ahead, and innovative use cases that will shape the future. Its key findings are as follows: 

• The industrial metaverse will bring together the digital and real worlds. It will enable a constant exchange of information, data, and decisions and empower industries to solve extraordinarily complex real-world problems digitally, changing how organizations operate and unlocking significant societal benefits. 

• The digital twin is a core metaverse building block. These virtual models simulate real-world objects in detail. The next generation of digital twins will be photorealistic, physics-based, AI-enabled, and linked in metaverse ecosystems. 

• The industrial metaverse will transform every industry. Currently existing digital twins illustrate the power and potential of the industrial metaverse to revolutionize design and engineering, testing, operations, and training. 

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The Download: China’s retro AI photos, and experts’ AI fears

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The Download: China’s retro AI photos, and experts’ AI fears


Across social media, a number of creators are generating nostalgic photographs of China with the help of AI. Even though these images get some details wrong, they are realistic enough to trick and impress many of their followers.

The pictures look sophisticated in terms of definition, sharpness, saturation, and color tone. Their realism is partly down to a recent major update of image-making artificial-intelligence program Midjourney that was released in mid-March, which is better not only at generating human hands but also at simulating various photography styles. 

It’s still relatively easy, even for untrained eyes, to tell that the photos are generated by an AI. But for some creators, their experiments are more about trying to recall a specific era in time than trying to trick their audience. Read the full story.

—Zeyi Yang

Zeyi’s story is from China Report, his weekly newsletter giving you the inside track on tech in China. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Tuesday.

Read more of our reporting on AI-generated images:

+ These new tools let you see for yourself how biased AI image models are. Bias and stereotyping are still huge problems for systems like DALL-E 2 and Stable Diffusion, despite companies’ attempts to fix it. Read the full story.

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Evolutionary organizations reimagine the future

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Evolutionary organizations reimagine the future


The global technology consultancy Thoughtworks describes organizations that can respond to marketplace changes with continuous adaptation as “evolutionary organizations.” It argues that, instead of focusing only on technology change, organizations should focus on building capabilities that support ongoing reinvention. While many organizations recognize the benefit of adopting agile approaches in their technology capabilities and architectures, they have not extended these structures and ways of thinking throughout the operating model, which would allow their impact to extend beyond that of a single transformation project.

Global spending on digital transformation is growing at a brisk pace: 16.4% per year according to IDC. The firm’s 2021 “Worldwide Digital Transformation Spending Guide” forecasts that annual transformation expenditures will reach $2.8 trillion in 2025, more than double the spending in 2020.1 At the same time, research from Boston Consulting Group shows that 7 out of 10 digital transformation initiatives fall short of their objectives. Organizations that succeed, however, achieve almost double the earnings growth of those that fail and more than double the growth in the total value of their enterprises.2 Understanding how to make these transitions successful, then, should be of key interest to all business leaders.

This MIT Technology Review Insights report is based on a survey of 275 corporate leaders, supplemented by interviews with seven experts in digital transformation. Its key findings include the following:

Digital transformation is not solely a technology issue. Adopting new technology for its own sake does not set the organization up to continue to adapt to changing circumstances. Among survey respondents, however, transformation is still synonymous with tech, with 70% planning to adopt a new technology in the next year, but only 41% pursuing changes to their business model.

The business environment is changing faster than many organizations think. Most survey respondents (81%) believe their organization is more adaptable than average and nearly all (89%) say that they’re keeping up with or ahead of their competitors—suggesting a wide gap between the rapidly evolving reality and executives’ perceptions of their preparedness.

All organizations must build capabilities for continuous reinvention. The only way to keep up is for organizations to continuously change and evolve, but most traditional businesses lack the strategic flexibility necessary to do this. Nearly half of business leaders outside the C-suite (44%), for example, say organizational structure, silos, or hierarchy are the biggest obstacle to transformation at their firm.

Focusing on customer value and empowering employees are keys to organizational evolution. The most successful transformations prioritize creating customer value and enhancing customer and employee experience. Meeting evolving customer needs is the constant source of value in a world where everything is changing, but many traditional organizations fail to take this long view, with only 15% of respondents most concerned about failing to meet customer expectations if they fail to transform.

Rapid experimentation requires the ability to fail and recover quickly. Organizations agree that iterative, experimental processes are essential to finding the right solutions, with 81% saying they have adopted agile practices. Fewer are confident, however, in their ability to execute decisions quickly (76%)—or to shut down initiatives that aren’t working (60%).

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